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Sunday, March 23, 2014

Bergamot Soap

I am deeply non-religious person. It doesn't mean I don't  believe in god. I do. Not a man in sky, of course... lol.
I believe in Equiponderance. Time and time again I observe how my actions and thoughts being balanced somehow somewhere by equal force, to offset me back to even. The Great Equiponderator is all around me, at all times... watching, listening... working its magic. He doesn't love me, nor he is out to get me. He doesn't care. All he does - keeping shit in Balance.
May be I should call him "it"?

How did my wife knew about bloody, muddy mess? How did she found Bergamot soap? Why would she buy more expensive soap, when we fast running out of cash? I love that soap. I need it.
Great Equiponderator.


Short Term S&P 500 Futures Trading.

No, I am not calling it a scam.
There is important and very real purpose for index futures. There are many methods for day-trading ES, some better than others, some fully automated. I thought a had a good one (System 11), but it didn't withstand real world conditions. A major contributing problem is my inability to act fast, decisively and purposefully on very short term time-frame. I have to admit, that i am completely unable to day-trade. I have to make peace with this fact, and walk away while I can. Knowing what I know now, I can see a '2010 disaster' coming fast towards me. I'll be damned not to do something about it.

Fishing Expedition (link) costed me a bit over 10%.
These type of losses (in dollar terms) would be quite trivial in an account 4 times the size, but for me - this is gargantuan and totally unnecessary at this time. What went wrong? Bunch of things, starting with weak execution for picking minor index bottom, mix-up of different time frames and too much leverage. Based on my notes, I observed bottom +/- 10points, but failed to act. Stops costed me too much, most of stop-outs where absolutely pointless. Multiple enters bled my account, as I was demoralized and in physical pain. My back is killing me, I have bruises on legs, and my biceps are so constricted I can't stretch my arms. How can man be so hurt from sitting in comfortable pleather chair? That's capital management for you, suckers...

Technical Analysis (TA) of  price charts is not a scam.
Most of basic and time-tested (by me) general principals of  TA work. Really. Especially so on individual equities charts. Really. This is where true investment interests are being displayed, buyers and sellers come to vote and bet on future prospects of companies and industries. I see them often. They leave familiar foot-prints all over price plot. Over the years (and quite consistently) I was able to properly interpret price/volume patterns, capitalize on many opportunities by following 'bread crumbs'. Again and again I benefited from investing and trading in real industrial stocks and commodities, as well as most forward looking, revolutionary companies. Trading active, fashionable stocks that are tied to the future (Darvas, yes), based on common sense and certain set of long/intermediate charts (aka Matrix). Buying and holding for a meaningful swing, with goal of riding a long and persistent price trend defined by Investment Theme.

TA works great on most individual equities, not so well in sector ETF's and mutual funds, and fails completely on broad indexes. The more I think and research, the more I am sure that the whole purpose of 'index' is to avoid Technical Analysis of price chart, rendering any attempts to time and analyze it pointless most of the time. I have a theoretical and philosophical base for this in a form of 'Dow Paradox' and 'Map is Not a Territory'.
I believe its true. Really.


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