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Monday, June 11, 2012

Dr. Ed Yardeni : Corrections vs. Bear Markets

Dr. Ed's Blog: A Primer: Corrections vs. Bear Markets

" (1) During 2010, the S&P 500 forward P/E dropped 22% from a high of 14.7 on January 11 to a low of 11.4 during August 26. However, forward earnings rose all year. So the 16% correction in the S&P 500 from April 23 to July 2 was reversed by the end of the year, with the P/E ending at 13.1.

(2) During 2011, the P/E fell 25% from 13.6 on February 18 to 10.2 on October 3. Forward earnings rose during the first half of the year and remained mostly flat during the second half at a record high. So once again, the market recovered and closed higher by the end of the year with the P/E rebounding to 11.7.

(3) During 2012 so far this year, the P/E peaked at 13.0 on March 26. It was down 11% to 11.6 yesterday, just about matching the 2010 low, which was 11.4. The S&P 500 is down 9% from its high on April 2, which is still just a garden-variety correction. Meanwhile, forward earnings rose to a new all-time record high of $111.27 during the week of May 31. At this level, a retest of last year’s panic low P/E of 10.2 would push the S&P 500 down to 1135, which would be a 20% decline from the year’s high on April 2."
Thanks, Dr. Ed

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