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Thursday, October 16, 2014

System 12 - Q 3, 2014

 Public Service Announcement:
For anyone following System12 trades (all two of you), I want to caution against buying any of these stocks on what seems to be bottoming price action, as this may be premature. The major trade trigger (both entry and stop) is a Simple 50 Day Moving Average. There are other rules and filters that I will just keep to myself, but just using 50 day MA gives this method positive expectancy enough to be profitable (don't worry about SQN - its a rather meaningless statistical exercise, mostly useless in real world, just like most of Van Tharp's teachings). System12 stocks are the true market leaders, but they will not remain so indefinitely, some will fall and never come back. Buying has to be done on close above 50 day MA, with stop below, but please don't abandon your own risk control methods and position sizing. Understand, that in these market conditions, with heavy distribution and wide-spread damage to most groups of stocks, there will be at-least an attempt to short everything on back-test of this all-important moving average... will they succeed or not - that I don't know ;-)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment advise or a solicitation. If you follow me on these trades, bearded men dressed in black will come to your house to stick a bloody flu up ya ass... and ... you could lose money.


..this update covers activity from 10/16/14 to 11/16/2014.


On 10/16 I hold only PG(stop under83),WMT(stop74),CHL(on-close under58)

BABA was just listed and already in Mega Dozen. First of all, I don't have filters for it and not going to have them for months. Secondly, I will gladly wait and exclude this from MD Control, as I don't expect Alibaba to stay in a company of biggest stocks, because slick Mr.Ma already took his investors for a trip to a poor house once (when company was originally listed in Hong-Kong). Time will sort us out - that I am sure.

BOT: BRK on 10/21; AAPL on 10/22; MSFT, WFC, JNJ on 10/28; GE, CHL on 11/4; NVS on 11/5
SLD: CHL on 10/23 (bought back on 11/4)
DIVI received: GE, JPM, AAPL
 This is MD:

 MD Control: surprisingly no changes, but PTR, RDS and PG are so close - its almost a tie.
Qualified: AAPL. MSFT, BRK, CHL
Toying with "qualified": JNJ, WFC, GE, WMT, NVS, PTR, also PG, JPM
Disqualified: XOM, GOOGL, RDS, CVX
Earnings: CHL Oct 20-21, NVS Oct28, PTR Oct29; RDS (end of Oct?); BRK Nov(1?),
3rd Quarter MD 2014 earnings
(only initial reaction considered, regardless if stock recovers or not):
All  reported: 8 up; 4 down (better than both previous quarters)

This is SD:
I have PG
ORCL out; BAC in

This is Arnott Overlay (AO) : XOM, GE, WFC, BRK, AAPL
 RAFI 1000 index was rebalanced. Most recent weightings are here (link). Last check 7/29/2014.

 Arnott Overlay and System12 Select Theme (AOS12s) of System9.
Took these out earlier than S12 rules and actual BCM sales - was a wise decision based on multiple CSI sell signals.

 EEBL include: IBM, MSFT, WFC
 GURU holdings include these S12 stocks: AAPL,  JPM,  WFC

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