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Friday, November 18, 2016

DART v2 note

At this time all notes, observations and orders of DART v2 Method pertain directly to my main account and being traded with real money. Still, I would like to caution an excited follower that this remains not a thoroughly tested strategy and money can be lost. You are responsible for your own decisions with your own money (tips hat).

I used September and October dips to enter DART v2 positions, via a synchronization process, outlined in 'Dart Sync' article (post link). DART rule-set was sufficient to navigate softness due to Trump pre-election Slump, and portfolio took off from November low like a bat out of hell.

At time like this, when these six stocks are ripping tits to upside, it is important to remember that DART is not a trend following system, but a dynamic rotational method. Meaning: since there are no losers in portfolio - I must sell a big winner, add profit to cash reserves and re-allocate Standard Position Size into something that didn't rally yet. All according to rule b2 from from original article (post link)

MSM has been in Dart since end of summer. It gave me little trouble, although it was one of possible sell candidates after October low. Since then MSM rallied 20% and presently best performer. As a result of price appreciation, stock yields 2.1% - smallest in portfolio and kind of low by DARTv2 selection criteria. Ex-dividend date was about a week ago, so its a money in a bank, however small... still "one to-day better than two to-morrow" (as Poor Richard would say). Further red flag is short interest, standing at 12% of float (read about 'short qualifier' here (post link). While more like a recommendation rather than requirement, I don't like these expressions of doubt about Dart Picks.
Stop for MSM is 82.22 and will be aggressively trailed until caught.

(UPDATE: stop was trailed for almost a month until MSM was finally sold on 12/14/16 at $91.58 for about 25% gain in 3 months... unbelievable...)

This is Dart v2 Portfolio now:

Portfolio can be viewed in MarketWatch for illustration purposes. as DART v2 Game (link):
(MarketWatch virtual game started 11/9/2016 and expected to end sometime in 2017)

DART v2 trades and occasional commentary are published on my private Twitter feed 
(just send me a request - its FREE for now):  https://twitter.com/SWID_iBergamot
 MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) is a tool, parts and materials supplier for industrial clients. Think of it as Home Depot, but for real. Metalworkers, small factories, machine shops, transportation... you name it... when its serious business - people go to MSC Direct- 'Built To Make You Better'. Its not a retail shop, although they got offices all over the place, mostly everything is shipped from few major warehouses, that keep a cool million of in-stock items.

MSM debt is at manageable level, with small dividend, cash on a books and almost 3 Bil in sales - its a solid company and it almost pains me to sell such a beauty. Alas, rules are rules (that's what they are there for) and stock has to go.  I am looking forward to a possibility of re-purchasing MSM at lower levels, following obligatory 1 month lock-out period.

 .to follow articles in this series - select 'DART' label on a right sidebar.
Read these key posts:
Original DART Article
Loaded Gun - results and observations
Dart v2. System Start
Dart v2. Portfolio Check

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