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Sunday, January 31, 2016

System Update. 1-2016

System12

  ...System12 original rule-set is basically discontinued. I continue to use it exclusively as high quality stock selection tool and timing entry/exit using weekly CSI (Composite Score Indicator)...

Since last update at the end of November 2015 (post link), market went basically straight down, putting a bottom on Jan 20 with extremely oversold readings. I wanted to wait a bit to see some early earnings reports and reaction to it.
One of MD stocks I was especially interested in - AMZN, aka "river of no returns", sporting a farcical 975 P/E just a month ago. Don't get me wrong - I'm a big fan, long time happy customer and successful investor in AMZN (last year), but silly fundamentals of this outfit make me very uneasy.
I saw Television Genius Barry Diller (wiki) opine that Amazon will be one of biggest companies in the World (among some other wild prognostications). I have highest respect for Mr Diller (college drop-out, naturally). He is a visionary, great businessman... and married to a real princess, no less..., but he is not a market practitioner. Had he be one, he would know that AMZN already IS one of top ten companies in the World, although it slid from #6 to #9 due to disastrous earnings call and guidance.
Note to self: never take stock advise from non-market practitioner. Really.

System12BCM:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?WFC,PFE,PG,BRK/B,T,CHL,BUD,GOOGL|B|P5,3,3|0

This is MD:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AAPL,GOOGL,MSFT,BRK/B,XOM,AMZN,GE,FB,WFC,JNJ,PG,T|B|P5,3,3|0

https://trader.motifinvesting.com/motifs/mega-dozen-Ftnb1cNJ#/overview
.motif is re-balanced to equal weight for better near-term tracking.

MD Control: CHL and JPM out; PG and T in
Disqualified: AAPL, BRK, WFC, CHL and XOM (by a smidge)
Earnings: GOOGL 2/1; XOM and PFE 2/2; BRK 2/5; DIS 2/9; WMT 2/18; HD 2/23; BUD 2/25

This is SD:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?CHL,JPM,WMT,NVS,VZ,BUD,PFE,TM,PTR,KO,V,CVX|B|P5,3,3|0
DIS out; CVX in (CVX was hanging close in last update)
Some of stocks coming up: BAC, HSBC and C; PEP and PM; MRK; ORCL and INTC (not ibm)
also HD almost at SD, with DIS close by and CMCSA down below.
Oiler RDS  hanging out; BABA at #26 and keeps coming down (lol).
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FMSUP Utilities Portfolio.

FMSUP overview here (link)
Started 1/4/2016. Starting equity $20K.
Positions entered on open.
SO    3164.51
PPL   3163.44
PNW  3159.14
ES    3148.25
ATO  3158.95
AWK 3183.18
Cash reserve 1022.53

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SPY,XLU,FSUTX,SO,PPL,PNW,ES,ATO,AWK|B|P5,3,3|0
https://www.motifinvesting.com/motifs/fmsup-M9fcmb13#/overview


Portfolio is mostly large cap with two big mid caps, for average ~20Bil.
ATO and AWK are not in S&P500 (note: Ass-n-Pee has no water utilities... cus people don't need no stinkin' water...)
P/E ranges from 13 to 23; P/S normal; lots of debt (expected).
This mix should yield about 3.5%
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DART Portfolio
(DART overview post link)
Due to circumstances beyond my control, this test virtual account was all screwed up on Monday, January 4. There was no reasonable alternative, so I entered all trades on Tuesday mid-day.

This is a test!
No real money traded, but I keep a virtual trading account with (near) real records.
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