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Sunday, January 31, 2016

System Update. 1-2016


  ...System12 original rule-set is basically discontinued. I continue to use it exclusively as high quality stock selection tool and timing entry/exit using weekly CSI (Composite Score Indicator)...

Since last update at the end of November 2015 (post link), market went basically straight down, putting a bottom on Jan 20 with extremely oversold readings. I wanted to wait a bit to see some early earnings reports and reaction to it.
One of MD stocks I was especially interested in - AMZN, aka "river of no returns", sporting a farcical 975 P/E just a month ago. Don't get me wrong - I'm a big fan, long time happy customer and successful investor in AMZN (last year), but silly fundamentals of this outfit make me very uneasy.
I saw Television Genius Barry Diller (wiki) opine that Amazon will be one of biggest companies in the World (among some other wild prognostications). I have highest respect for Mr Diller (college drop-out, naturally). He is a visionary, great businessman... and married to a real princess, no less..., but he is not a market practitioner. Had he be one, he would know that AMZN already IS one of top ten companies in the World, although it slid from #6 to #9 due to disastrous earnings call and guidance.
Note to self: never take stock advise from non-market practitioner. Really.


This is MD:

.motif is re-balanced to equal weight for better near-term tracking.

MD Control: CHL and JPM out; PG and T in
Disqualified: AAPL, BRK, WFC, CHL and XOM (by a smidge)
Earnings: GOOGL 2/1; XOM and PFE 2/2; BRK 2/5; DIS 2/9; WMT 2/18; HD 2/23; BUD 2/25

This is SD:
DIS out; CVX in (CVX was hanging close in last update)
Some of stocks coming up: BAC, HSBC and C; PEP and PM; MRK; ORCL and INTC (not ibm)
also HD almost at SD, with DIS close by and CMCSA down below.
Oiler RDS  hanging out; BABA at #26 and keeps coming down (lol).

FMSUP Utilities Portfolio.

FMSUP overview here (link)
Started 1/4/2016. Starting equity $20K.
Positions entered on open.
SO    3164.51
PPL   3163.44
PNW  3159.14
ES    3148.25
ATO  3158.95
AWK 3183.18
Cash reserve 1022.53


Portfolio is mostly large cap with two big mid caps, for average ~20Bil.
ATO and AWK are not in S&P500 (note: Ass-n-Pee has no water utilities... cus people don't need no stinkin' water...)
P/E ranges from 13 to 23; P/S normal; lots of debt (expected).
This mix should yield about 3.5%

DART Portfolio
(DART overview post link)
Due to circumstances beyond my control, this test virtual account was all screwed up on Monday, January 4. There was no reasonable alternative, so I entered all trades on Tuesday mid-day.

This is a test!
No real money traded, but I keep a virtual trading account with (near) real records.

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